Methodology
Research. Process. Edge.
MSS begins with a hypothesis, tests it against historical evidence, and follows the findings rather than forcing a play. Only ideas with identifiable support and potential to repeat advance to matchup and market review. We document what gets published and evaluate both the result and the decision process.
The Standard
A play has to earn its way onto the card.
Most opportunities never become published plays. The ones that do are documented at publication, tracked through the market, and evaluated after the game. Filtering is part of the work; measurement is part of it too.
Why MSS Exists
Start with a hypothesis. Follow the evidence.
An interesting pattern is not automatically an actionable opportunity. We investigate what might explain it, whether the underlying conditions are identifiable, and whether the evidence suggests it can repeat.
When a hypothesis survives that scrutiny, we evaluate the current matchup, market price, and relevant circumstances. If the requirements still hold, we publish the play and preserve the original line and odds for later evaluation.
A hypothesis may be supported, disproven, or inconclusive. Not every investigation produces a play. The public record lets us measure outcomes and learn from decisions over time.
Outcome bias
One final score cannot tell us everything about whether the original decision was well priced.
Too much action
A full slate does not mean every game or market deserves a wager.
Changing standards
A repeatable process matters because the reason for acting should not change after the outcome is known.
Too little accountability
The published line, price, result, and market comparison should remain visible after the game is over.
Specialization
One league. More focus.
MSS focuses exclusively on the NBA. No college basketball. No other professional basketball leagues. No other sports.
That concentration allows our research to stay centered on the same teams, players, markets, coaching environments, and recurring situations throughout the season.
We chose depth over breadth. The NBA is where we do the work.
1
League we research
30
NBA teams
82
Regular-season games per team
The Process
From hypothesis to evaluation.
Publishing the play is not the end of the process. It is the point where the decision becomes measurable.
Before publication, we test and qualify the hypothesis, then review whether the current market offers an actionable opportunity. After publication, we document, track, and evaluate the decision.
Research
Form a hypothesis, test the historical evidence, and investigate the conditions and factors that may explain the pattern.
Qualify
Advance a hypothesis only when supporting factors are identifiable and the pattern shows potential to repeat under defined conditions.
Review
Evaluate the current matchup, market price, player availability, news, and relevant circumstances to see whether the opportunity remains actionable.
Publish
Publish only when the established requirements are met. Preserve the original line, odds, sportsbook, and publication time for subsequent evaluation.
Track
Track the same sportsbook after publication and, when available, show the best comparable price across the approved sportsbook set for additional market context.
Close
Use a verified pregame closing line from the same sportsbook when available. If that close cannot be verified, a documented consensus from multiple identified sportsbooks may be used for CLV.
Evaluate
Grade the wager result and evaluate closing-line value separately. One measures what happened; the other helps measure how the published decision performed in the market.
Two Measurements
The result measures the outcome. Market movement and CLV give us another way to evaluate the process.
Selectivity
No play is still a decision.
A full NBA slate does not require a full card.
If nothing meets the standard, we do not manufacture a reason to bet. No play is a valid outcome of the process.
The Filter
Process Measurement
The result is not the only data point.
Wins and losses matter. So does the price of the decision. Closing-line value gives MSS another way to evaluate whether a published position was better or worse than the market that ultimately formed before the game.
CLV uses a verified same-sportsbook close when available. If that market cannot be verified, MSS may use a documented consensus from multiple identified sportsbooks. Best Available is separate market context, not an automatic substitute for a verified closing comparison.
Positive CLV does not mean a wager was guaranteed to win. Negative CLV does not mean it was guaranteed to lose. CLV is a process measurement, not a replacement for the result.
Live plays are handled differently. When MSS publishes after tip, the game state and score at publication are preserved with the play. Pregame Current, Best Available, Close, and CLV tracking do not apply to that live wager.
Published
The original MSS line, price, sportsbook, and timestamp. This is the fixed historical reference.
Current
The latest available quote from the same sportsbook before the game begins.
Best Available
A comparable pregame quote across approved sportsbooks. It provides market context but does not, by itself, establish a verified closing-line comparison.
Close
A verified closing line from the published sportsbook, or a documented consensus fallback when a same-book closing line is unavailable.
Positive CLV
The published position was better than the verified closing-market comparison.
Neutral CLV
The publication and close were effectively unchanged under the MSS comparison rules.
Negative CLV
The verified closing market moved against the originally published position.
Accountability
The receipt stays fixed.
Once a play is published, the original line, odds, sportsbook, and publication time remain the historical record. The market can move. The published receipt does not.
Every settled MSS play remains in the public record with its result and unit performance. When a verified closing-line comparison is available for an eligible pregame play, CLV remains part of that record as a separate process measure.
This is not designed to make every decision look good. It is designed to make the history auditable.
View the public record →What Gets Counted
✓
Every published result
✓
Units gained or lost
✓
Original publication receipt
✓
Verified closing-line comparison and CLV
What Doesn't Get Counted
Nothing gets rewritten after the fact.
Published history stays tied to what was actually available when the decision was released.
No deleted losses
No retroactive line changes
No unverified substitutes for CLV
Less Noise. Better Reasons.
See the process put to work.
Follow the public record, see how published decisions compare with the market, or explore the research behind them.